Published March 9. 2023 3:24 pm set
Editor in Chief,
NEWSMOVESMARKETSFOREX ®
KEY TAKE AWAYS:
- U.S. Jobs report rose by 517,000 new jobs added to the U.S. Labor Markets in the Month of Jan 2023, cementing down three consecutive months of positive U.S. Job growth
- Jan 2023 Labor participation still remains flat and unchanged at 62.4 percent
- Unemployment rate improved coming in at 3.4% for the month of Jan 2023
- Average hourly earning for employee s on private nonfarm payrolls in June rose by 10 cents or .03%
- January Joblessness numbers for Blacks remain pretty much unchanged at 5.4% while Hispanics remain unchanged at 4.5 percent respectively
- Positive January 2023 Job Gains in Leisure and Hospitality, Health care, and Professional Business services
Early addition and economic analysis of the highly anticipated February Non Farm Payroll report due to Break the wire on Friday has investor’s attention for the headline Market moving events schedule for Friday, March 10th 2023 at 8:30am.
In the Last U.S. Jobs release January 2023 Jobs rose by a resounding 517,000 new essential JOBS that were added to U.S. Labor markets. The Labor market appears to be cranking up with a solid two consecutive months of positive jobs growth which seems to be injecting a bit of positive liquidity into the U.S. Labor markets.
Considering the dismal possibilities of consumer price index inflationary over tones looming right around the corner and despite the positive jobs report numbers, amid beating wall street economist expectations by 330,000 jobs in the month of January.
There still is that lingering problem according to World renown ADM Economic Strategist Marc Ostawald, who emphasizes that: “The one obvious negative is the consistently high level of layoff announcements in recent months, above all in the tech sector, though latterly also starting to show up in non-tech, which will typically show up with a lag, ADP misses relative to Private Payrolls over the past months, there is little to impute from the solid 242K rise.”.
Unemployment dropped to 3.4% versus the expected 3.6% which was the lowest level since 1969, the number of persons employed part time for economic reasons, at 4.1 Million, was little unchanged.
Early edition of tomorrow’s US labor data preview
I specially asked world renowned economist Marc Ostwald who is an expert Chief Economist & Global 
Strategist with ADM Investor Services International head quartered in London England, for his pre-market economic analysis and insights on the tomorrow/s heavily awaited and anticipated U.S. Labor Market Jobs Report results, Mr. Ostwald stated:
U.S.A. – February 2023 Labor Report **
“Given the size of the ADP misses relative to Private Payrolls over the past months, there is little to impute from the solid 242K rise. But with JOLTS Job Openings remaining sky high at 10.82 Mln in January, and weekly jobless claims super low at 195K in the week of the establishment survey, the unseasonably mild weather, and the structural shortages in both construction and education sectors, the risks would again appear to be to the upside of the 225K headline
Payrolls consensus, though not likely to the extent of January’s 517K outlier, which for a change may be revised lower. The one obvious negative is the consistently high level of layoff announcements in recent months, above all in the tech sector, though latterly also starting to show up in non-tech, which will typically show up with a lag.
The Unemployment Rate is seen holding at a 54-yr low of 3.4%, though the focus will be more on the Underemployment Rate which only inched up marginally from an all-time low of 6.5% to 6.6% in January, along with the Participation Rate, which has recovered again in recent months, but at an expected 62.4% remains a full percentage point below pre-pandemic levels.
However markets will above all zero in on Average Hourly Earnings, with the m/m rate seen easing slightly to 0.3%, which would edge the 3-mth annualized rate down to 4.4% from 4.8%, still too high for the Fed’s comfort, even if clearly not indicative of a wage price spiral.
Given that markets have moved to price a relatively high near 70% risk of a 50 bps hike in March, above all following Powell’s warnings this week, the wages data along with next week’s CPI (consensus 0.4% m/m headline and core, to edge headline y/y down 0.4 ppt to 6.0% and core 0.2 ppt to a still very lofty 5.4%) will likely be pivotal in deciding expectations on the size of the hike at the 22 March FOMC meeting.
But given next week’s CPI and other major data event risk, today’s labor data would have to be very weak to offer markets much comfort on the rate outlook, and even if were, it would be very tenuous to argue that one month’s data signals a clear easing in labor market conditions (the FOMC will certainly adopt that view).”
“WHATS UP WITH THE MARKET”
Currency Markets today 24 hours away from release of the Jobs numbers have been mixed and sporadic with the U.S. Dollar index currently down on the day at -0.44% DXY trading 105.83 as of this writing.
The DXY Index is trading significantly lower than February 3, 2023 Jobs Report down on the day at rate results of 101.84, Check out the full story here in 2021 to compare historical comparative improvements- (U.S. Jobs Report Falls 194,000 Job, Unemployment 4.8% Sep) .
Many of the mainstream currencies are slightly consolidating on the day waiting for the market moving news Jobs report on Friday, EUR up across a currency board spectrum:
EUR stronger than the USD trading at 1.0598 (EURUSD .38% up) CAD stronger than the EUR trading at 1.4608 (EURCAD +0.38% UP) USD Weaker than CAD trading @ 1.3800 (USDCAD -0.02% down), USD weaker than the CHF trading at .9350 (USDCHF .66% up the day). AUD weaker than the U.S. Dollar trading at 0.6601 (AUDUSD .19% up – on the trading day).
Jan 2023 Job report
According to the U.S. BLS the sectors that reflect significant job growth throughout the Labor markets in the month of Jan employment were construction, retail trade governmental employment professional business services, social assistance employment.
We will see what tomorrows highly awaited MARKET MOVING U.S. JOB’S report numbers brings us.
News Moves Markets Forex “real time digital currency news”, works to provide market intelligence, connecting our audience with a mix of the most latest insightful currency news in the Foreign exchange markets. Providing the Latest and the greatest in depth developing global central bank stories and financial news to traders and investors around the continent.
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Marc Osterwall is a world renowned Expert Economist who Analyzes and forecast macro/microeconomic trends and central bank policies on a exponential economic level. Mr. Osterwall is a regular guest on Bloomberg BNN, HT & Radio, BBC, CNBC, Le Fonti International and is widely quoted on newswires, newspapers, and other digital media worldwide. He is also a regular conference speaker and guest lecturer at various universities.
Reference: U.S. Bureau of Labor and Statistics. (2023). Employment Situation Summary Retrieved from https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.
